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What is El Niño ? ...
    For centuries, Peruvian fisherman have known about the El Niño. They noted that the fish yield off the coast of Peru would mysteriously disappear every three to five years around Christmas time. Naming it El Niño (the Christ Child), they have been plagued by its devastating effects for as long as anyone can remember. The El Niño sea surface temperature anomaly in the south eastern Pacific is only one part of a Pacific-oriented cycle that has global consequences.

    The interaction between air and sea in the Pacific causes an oscillation of temperature and pressure between the east and west limbs of the ocean. This cycle is collectively referred to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), where 'El Niño' refers to the oscillation in temperature in the south eastern Pacific, and 'Southern Oscillation' refers to the "flip-flop" in pressure between the east Pacific and west Pacific.

    El Niño warms and raises the waters off the coast of Peru only slightly, yet this is enough to devastate the local fishing industry. El Niño's effects are not limited to the local arena either. The global changes in temperature and precipitation patterns associated with El Niño cause billions of dollars in damage around the world in droughts, floods, and lost fishing revenue. Studying this relatively confined system can give insights into weather patterns across the globe and provides information about the earth system as a whole.

    By studying this quasi-periodic interaction between ocean and atmosphere, one can gain insights into weather patterns across the globe and provide information about the Earth system as a whole.

    More Detailed Information

Some Background Info
... Why Predict El Niño ?
...
    El Niño causes severe drops in the populations of many animals: turtles, birds, fish, and most specifically, the anchovy. The fishing industry in Peru is extremely dependent on the anchovy, and the livelihood of thousands depends on them. The reduction of the anchovy population, lasting as long as El Niño , that is, up to 18 months, is a terrible blow to this community.

    In addition, El Niño has been linked to droughts in Africa and Australia and floods in North America. The 1982-83 El Niño caused billions of dollars in damage to the world economy. Obviously, if the El Niño event could be predicted with good enough accuracy the worlds populations would have a chance to prepare for its effects on local climate.

The Means to Predicting
...
    Remote satellite sensing is the means to understanding the complex interactions between different earth processes that cause El Niño. Through data made available freely over the internet and on hard media (CD-ROMS, etc.) we can chart the El Niño phenomena and attempt to understand the events that cause it. But this is only the first step. We must also build mathematical models to predict the El Niño as far into the future as we can. For the student it is of course much easier and cheaper to concentrate on only the data gathering and analysis, leaving the modeling to the more advanced. But for the more adventurous of you we suggest finding a commercial modeling package (the graphically oriented Stella II is a good choice and the package we use).

    The Importance of Remote Sensing

Further Information ...
    From here you should start deeply researching the El Nino phenomena and earth science in general. The best place to do that is in our online library. There you'll find links to other sites, online books, and even other students webified reports. If you have any questions along the way, go to the connect page where you can contact the authers, talk with real earth science teachers and researchers, and with other students.

    From there, you're on your own. We encourage you to use the knowledge you gain to study this unique phenomenon. If you write a report on your findings, we'll gladly publish it on our site. Also make sure you register with our mail server so that we can communicate and learn from each other.